Predictive bases of development of the military sphere of national security

   The methodological aspects of analysis and forecasting of military-political situation in the context of alliance building, influencing the military sphere of national security, are shown. Negative factors indicating the imbalance of global and regional security assurance system are revealed. It is emphasized that understanding of military conflict development in the form of an “escalation ladder” will allow the political and military leaders to prevent the loss of controlability of the conflict. The main trends of military and political situation determining military dangers and threats to the Union State,
as well as the peculiarities of its development in the medium- and long-term forecasts were revealed. It has been specified that challenges and threats to the military security of Belarus and Russia will be of a complex and multidirectional nature, affecting all spheres of their activities. The task of their foreign and military policies is strengthening international security and strategic stability on the global and regional levels. The main features of military conflicts and armed struggle in the XXI century are defined. It is concluded that peaceful development of the Belarusian state in the conditions of increasing military violence is possible under the condition of guaranteed provision of military security of the state. It is important to continuously forecast the international and military-political situation, to improve the military organization of the state, the unity of the state power, the army and the people of the country. The main military strategic task for the political elite of the state is to deter aggression in any of its manifestations.

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